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El Niño and La Niña and Philippine commodity prices
NOAA Oceanic Niño Index — the sea surface temperature anomaly that defines El Niño and La Niña conditions. This page lists every Philippine commodity price whose monthly changes measurably track it, the delay between the two, and how much of the move carries through.
El Niño and La Niña is an index or rate rather than a price, and it can sit near or cross zero. Percentage changes in a series like that are unstable, so the figures below are best read as direction and timing rather than as a “10% move produces X” rule.
The strongest link currently measured is Ampalaya [Bitter gourd] Native Variety (Wholesale (PSA)), which moves against el niño and la niña with a correlation of -0.49 at a lag of 5 months, measured over 102 overlapping months.
Commodities that move with el niño and la niña
31 links that clear both the significance and sample-size tests, strongest first.
| Commodity | Correlation | Lag | Elasticity | Months | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ampalaya [Bitter gourd] Native Variety Wholesale (PSA) | -0.49 | 5 months | -0.13 | 102 | moderate |
| Espada [Hairtail] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.47 | 5 months | +0.03 | 86 | moderate |
| Pepper finger, green Wholesale (PSA) | -0.45 | 5 months | -0.21 | 103 | moderate |
| Ampalaya [Bitter gourd] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.45 | 5 months | -0.08 | 103 | moderate |
| Patola [Dishrag gourd], native Wholesale (PSA) | -0.44 | 5 months | -0.08 | 84 | moderate |
| Potato Retail (PSA) | -0.43 | 7 months | -0.02 | 104 | moderate |
| Eggplant long, purple Wholesale (PSA) | -0.42 | 5 months | -0.09 | 103 | moderate |
| Carrots Wholesale (PSA) | -0.42 | 3 months | -0.10 | 103 | moderate |
| Eggplant, native, long Farmgate (PSA) | -0.42 | 7 months | -0.06 | 29 | moderate |
| Onion, yellow granex (Bermuda white) Farmgate (PSA) | -0.41 | 10 months | -0.14 | 27 | moderate |
| Tobacco Others Farmgate (PSA) | +0.41 | 4 months | +0.35 | 44 | moderate |
| White/Irish Potato Wholesale (PSA) | -0.40 | 6 months | -0.05 | 103 | moderate |
| Tobacco Virginia Farmgate (PSA) | +0.39 | 4 months | +0.32 | 49 | moderate |
| Cacao Farmgate (PSA) | -0.38 | 6 months | -0.04 | 101 | moderate |
| Tomato Retail (PSA) | -0.38 | 5 months | -0.06 | 104 | moderate |
| Banana Lakatan Farmgate (PSA) | +0.35 | 11 months | +0.03 | 101 | moderate |
| Potato Farmgate (PSA) | -0.35 | 6 months | -0.07 | 101 | moderate |
| Ampalaya Retail (PSA) | -0.35 | 6 months | -0.03 | 104 | moderate |
| Pepper hot, red labuyo [Chili pepper] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.35 | 6 months | -0.23 | 101 | moderate |
| Pepper bell Wholesale (PSA) | -0.34 | 3 months | -0.07 | 103 | moderate |
| Bangus/Milkfish (Medium) Retail (PSA) | -0.33 | 7 months | -0.00 | 104 | moderate |
| Carrot Retail (PSA) | -0.32 | 3 months | -0.04 | 104 | moderate |
| Sweet Peas Native Wholesale (PSA) | +0.32 | 10 months | +0.14 | 55 | moderate |
| Eggplant Retail (PSA) | -0.32 | 7 months | -0.03 | 104 | moderate |
| Eggplant, long, purple Farmgate (PSA) | -0.32 | 7 months | -0.04 | 101 | moderate |
| Sweet Potato Wholesale (PSA) | +0.32 | 9 months | +0.02 | 103 | moderate |
| Galunggong (Medium) Retail (PSA) | -0.31 | 7 months | -0.01 | 104 | moderate |
| Mango (Kalabaw) Retail (PSA) | -0.31 | 7 months | -0.02 | 104 | moderate |
| Tomato Farmgate (PSA) | +0.31 | 9 months | +0.07 | 101 | moderate |
| Onion, red creole (Bermuda red) Farmgate (PSA) | -0.31 | same month | -0.13 | 67 | moderate |
| Mongo [Mungbean], Yellow Wholesale (PSA) | -0.31 | 5 months | -0.03 | 75 | moderate |
Correlation is measured on month-on-month percentage changes at the lag shown. Elasticity is the percentage move in the commodity per 1% move in the driver at that lag. Months is the number of overlapping monthly observations behind the estimate.
Last recomputed 2026-10-07.
How this is measured
- Both series are bucketed to monthly and converted to month-on-month percentage change, so a slow-drifting price level cannot manufacture a correlation.
- The commodity's monthly change is regressed on the driver's change at every lag from 0 to 12 months.
- The lag with the strongest correlation is kept; ties resolve toward the shorter lag.
- The link is labelled strong, moderate, weak or none from the correlation and its p-value together — strong requires a correlation of at least 0.5 at p < 0.01, moderate at least 0.3 at p < 0.05.
- Pairs with fewer than 24 overlapping monthly observations are excluded from every ranking on this site, however strong they score. With thousands of comparisons run each night, thin pairs clear a significance test on noise alone.
Other drivers
Bank average lending rate (BSP)
58 links
BSP policy rate
48 links
US deep-sea freight PPI (BLS)
38 links
Headline inflation (PSA)
33 links
Global supply-chain pressure (GSCPI)
33 links
NCR regional inflation, all items (PSA)
19 links
Palm oil (World Bank)
19 links
USD/PHP (BSP)
19 links
Maize (World Bank)
19 links
US Fed funds rate (FRED)
17 links
Crude oil, Brent (World Bank)
16 links
Rice, Thai 5% (World Bank)
14 links
Related
These are statistical associations measured from historical co-movement, not proven causation, and they are not a forecast of any individual price. Figures are recomputed nightly from official published data and change as new releases land. Informational only — not financial advice.