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Headline inflation and Philippine commodity prices
PSA all-items Consumer Price Index. Measured as its month-on-month change, so a move here is a month of inflation. This page lists every Philippine commodity price whose monthly changes measurably track it, the delay between the two, and how much of the move carries through.
Headline inflation is an index or rate rather than a price, and it can sit near or cross zero. Percentage changes in a series like that are unstable, so the figures below are best read as direction and timing rather than as a “10% move produces X” rule.
The strongest link currently measured is Onion, yellow granex (Bermuda white) (Farmgate (PSA)), which moves against headline inflation with a correlation of -0.55 at a lag of 12 months, measured over 25 overlapping months.
Commodities that move with headline inflation
33 links that clear both the significance and sample-size tests, strongest first.
| Commodity | Correlation | Lag | Elasticity | Months | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onion, yellow granex (Bermuda white) Farmgate (PSA) | -0.55 | 12 months | -125.00 | 25 | strong |
| Rice (Regular-milled) Retail (PSA) | +0.54 | same month | +2.33 | 104 | strong |
| Rice (Well-milled) Retail (PSA) | +0.52 | same month | +2.03 | 104 | strong |
| Rice (Special) Retail (PSA) | +0.50 | same month | +1.37 | 104 | strong |
| Rice Premium Wholesale (PSA) | +0.49 | same month | +2.10 | 103 | moderate |
| Regular Milled Rice (RMR) Wholesale (PSA) | +0.47 | same month | +2.53 | 103 | moderate |
| Well Milled Rice (WMR) Wholesale (PSA) | +0.44 | same month | +2.14 | 103 | moderate |
| Rice Special Wholesale (PSA) | +0.40 | same month | +1.61 | 103 | moderate |
| Carrot Retail (PSA) | +0.40 | same month | +9.42 | 104 | moderate |
| Mango Piko Farmgate (PSA) | -0.37 | 8 months | -36.46 | 67 | moderate |
| Mango (Kalabaw) Retail (PSA) | +0.37 | 12 months | +6.68 | 92 | moderate |
| Bangus/Milkfish (Medium) Retail (PSA) | +0.37 | same month | +1.16 | 104 | moderate |
| Galunggong (Medium) Retail (PSA) | +0.37 | same month | +2.27 | 104 | moderate |
| Tilapia Retail (PSA) | +0.37 | same month | +0.82 | 104 | moderate |
| Banana Lakatan Farmgate (PSA) | +0.36 | 2 months | +5.97 | 99 | moderate |
| Eggplant Retail (PSA) | +0.36 | same month | +7.51 | 104 | moderate |
| Cassava Retail (PSA) | +0.36 | same month | +1.08 | 104 | moderate |
| Mango Carabao, ripe Wholesale (PSA) | +0.36 | 12 months | +18.01 | 91 | moderate |
| Chicken (Whole Broiler) Retail (PSA) | +0.36 | same month | +1.27 | 104 | moderate |
| Coffee Liberica (green coffee beans) Farmgate (PSA) | -0.35 | 9 months | -23.44 | 34 | moderate |
| Ampalaya Retail (PSA) | +0.35 | same month | +5.63 | 104 | moderate |
| Squash Retail (PSA) | +0.35 | 1 month | +6.02 | 103 | moderate |
| Tobacco Virginia Farmgate (PSA) | -0.34 | same month | -26.03 | 49 | moderate |
| Squash Wholesale (PSA) | +0.33 | same month | +14.90 | 103 | moderate |
| Pepper bell Wholesale (PSA) | -0.33 | 3 months | -15.30 | 100 | moderate |
| Mango Carabao, green Wholesale (PSA) | +0.33 | 12 months | +13.73 | 72 | moderate |
| Matang-baka [Big-eyed scad] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.32 | 8 months | -5.54 | 95 | moderate |
| Potato Retail (PSA) | +0.31 | same month | +3.83 | 104 | moderate |
| Onion (Red) Retail (PSA) | +0.31 | same month | +8.60 | 104 | moderate |
| Carrots Wholesale (PSA) | -0.31 | 4 months | -15.42 | 99 | moderate |
| Tomato, ripe Wholesale (PSA) | -0.31 | 2 months | -21.03 | 101 | moderate |
| Cauliflower Wholesale (PSA) | +0.31 | 7 months | +23.58 | 96 | moderate |
| Bangus [Milkfish] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.30 | same month | +1.76 | 103 | moderate |
Correlation is measured on month-on-month percentage changes at the lag shown. Elasticity is the percentage move in the commodity per 1% move in the driver at that lag. Months is the number of overlapping monthly observations behind the estimate.
Last recomputed 2026-10-08.
How this is measured
- Both series are bucketed to monthly and converted to month-on-month percentage change, so a slow-drifting price level cannot manufacture a correlation.
- The commodity's monthly change is regressed on the driver's change at every lag from 0 to 12 months.
- The lag with the strongest correlation is kept; ties resolve toward the shorter lag.
- The link is labelled strong, moderate, weak or none from the correlation and its p-value together — strong requires a correlation of at least 0.5 at p < 0.01, moderate at least 0.3 at p < 0.05.
- Pairs with fewer than 24 overlapping monthly observations are excluded from every ranking on this site, however strong they score. With thousands of comparisons run each night, thin pairs clear a significance test on noise alone.
Other drivers
Bank average lending rate (BSP)
58 links
BSP policy rate
48 links
US deep-sea freight PPI (BLS)
38 links
Global supply-chain pressure (GSCPI)
33 links
El Niño / La Niña (ONI)
31 links
NCR regional inflation, all items (PSA)
19 links
Palm oil (World Bank)
19 links
USD/PHP (BSP)
19 links
Maize (World Bank)
19 links
US Fed funds rate (FRED)
17 links
Crude oil, Brent (World Bank)
16 links
Rice, Thai 5% (World Bank)
14 links
Related
These are statistical associations measured from historical co-movement, not proven causation, and they are not a forecast of any individual price. Figures are recomputed nightly from official published data and change as new releases land. Informational only — not financial advice.