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Global supply-chain pressure and Philippine commodity prices
New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, in standard deviations from its average. This page lists every Philippine commodity price whose monthly changes measurably track it, the delay between the two, and how much of the move carries through.
Global supply-chain pressure is an index or rate rather than a price, and it can sit near or cross zero. Percentage changes in a series like that are unstable, so the figures below are best read as direction and timing rather than as a “10% move produces X” rule.
The strongest link currently measured is Tulingan [Frigate tuna] (Wholesale (PSA)), which moves with global supply-chain pressure with a correlation of +0.67 at a lag of 2 months, measured over 101 overlapping months.
Commodities that move with global supply-chain pressure
55 links that clear both the significance and sample-size tests, strongest first.
| Commodity | Correlation | Lag | Elasticity | Months | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulingan [Frigate tuna] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.67 | 2 months | +0.00 | 101 | strong |
| Banana (Saba) Retail (PSA) | +0.62 | 11 months | +0.00 | 102 | strong |
| Garlic (Local) Retail (PSA) | +0.60 | 9 months | +0.00 | 102 | strong |
| Ginger Native Wholesale (PSA) | +0.60 | 1 month | +0.00 | 101 | strong |
| Eggplant native, round Wholesale (PSA) | +0.60 | 6 months | +0.00 | 100 | strong |
| Eggplant, native, long Farmgate (PSA) | +0.55 | same month | +0.03 | 26 | strong |
| Sapsap [Slipmouth] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.55 | 10 months | +0.00 | 101 | strong |
| Abaca Handstripped Wholesale (PSA) | -0.55 | 7 months | -0.00 | 67 | strong |
| Onion, yellow granex (Bermuda white) Farmgate (PSA) | +0.54 | 5 months | +0.20 | 24 | strong |
| Garlic (Imported) Retail (PSA) | +0.53 | 9 months | +0.00 | 102 | strong |
| Pineapple Hawaiian* Wholesale (PSA) | +0.53 | 7 months | +0.00 | 101 | strong |
| Ginger Retail (PSA) | +0.52 | 11 months | +0.00 | 102 | strong |
| Sweet Peas Native Wholesale (PSA) | +0.52 | same month | +0.00 | 53 | strong |
| Muskmelon* Wholesale (PSA) | +0.51 | 11 months | +0.00 | 87 | strong |
| Banana (Lakatan) Retail (PSA) | +0.50 | 11 months | +0.00 | 102 | moderate |
| Dalagang-Bukid, lapad [Caesio] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.48 | 2 months | +0.00 | 101 | moderate |
| Garlic Taiwan (Imported) Wholesale (PSA) | +0.46 | 9 months | +0.00 | 101 | moderate |
| Pusit [Squid] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.44 | 10 months | +0.00 | 101 | moderate |
| Corngrits White Wholesale (PSA) | +0.44 | 11 months | +0.00 | 102 | moderate |
| Ginger Hawaiian Wholesale (PSA) | +0.44 | 11 months | +0.00 | 101 | moderate |
| Galunggong (Medium) Retail (PSA) | +0.44 | 7 months | +0.00 | 102 | moderate |
| Mongo [Mungbean], Yellow Wholesale (PSA) | +0.43 | 7 months | +0.02 | 73 | moderate |
| Mango Carabao, ripe Wholesale (PSA) | +0.41 | 3 months | +0.00 | 101 | moderate |
| Malunggay Retail (PSA) | -0.40 | 4 months | -0.00 | 102 | moderate |
| Tobacco Virginia Farmgate (PSA) | -0.40 | 4 months | -0.04 | 46 | moderate |
| Lapu-lapu [Grouper] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.39 | 11 months | -0.00 | 101 | moderate |
| Coconut matured* Wholesale (PSA) | +0.38 | same month | +0.00 | 97 | moderate |
| Banana Bungulan, ripe* Wholesale (PSA) | +0.38 | 4 months | +0.00 | 95 | moderate |
| Onion native (red shallot), multiplier Wholesale (PSA) | +0.37 | 6 months | +0.00 | 98 | moderate |
| Kidney Beans, white Wholesale (PSA) | -0.37 | 9 months | -0.00 | 97 | moderate |
| Jackfruit green Wholesale (PSA) | +0.36 | 4 months | +0.00 | 99 | moderate |
| Mango Carabao, green Wholesale (PSA) | +0.36 | 5 months | +0.02 | 76 | moderate |
| Gabi Tagalog, for sinigang [Tannia, Yautia (cocoyam)] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.36 | 6 months | +0.00 | 100 | moderate |
| Salay-salay [Crevalle] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.35 | 6 months | +0.00 | 101 | moderate |
| Mango Piko Farmgate (PSA) | -0.35 | 6 months | -0.04 | 72 | moderate |
| Rubber (coagulated cup lump) Farmgate (PSA) | -0.35 | 11 months | -0.00 | 98 | moderate |
| Onion, red creole (Bermuda red) Farmgate (PSA) | -0.35 | 6 months | -0.05 | 64 | moderate |
| Coffee Arabica (roasted) Wholesale (PSA) | +0.34 | 9 months | +0.00 | 74 | moderate |
| Calamansi Farmgate (PSA) | +0.34 | 10 months | +0.00 | 98 | moderate |
| Rice Special Wholesale (PSA) | -0.34 | 7 months | -0.00 | 102 | moderate |
| Eggplant, native, round Farmgate (PSA) | +0.33 | 6 months | +0.00 | 98 | moderate |
| Cassava Wholesale (PSA) | +0.33 | 11 months | +0.00 | 101 | moderate |
| Pineapple, Native Farmgate (PSA) | -0.32 | 8 months | -0.00 | 41 | moderate |
| Mandarin Szinkom Wholesale (PSA) | +0.32 | same month | +0.00 | 86 | moderate |
| Tambakol [Yellowfin tuna] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.32 | 9 months | -0.00 | 101 | moderate |
| Corngrain White Wholesale (PSA) | +0.32 | 11 months | +0.00 | 102 | moderate |
| Galunggong [Roundscad] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.32 | 7 months | +0.00 | 101 | moderate |
| Mango Carabao Farmgate (PSA) | +0.31 | 4 months | +0.00 | 98 | moderate |
| Pepper hot, red labuyo [Chili pepper] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.31 | 3 months | +0.01 | 99 | moderate |
| Tobacco Native Farmgate (PSA) | +0.31 | 12 months | +0.00 | 97 | moderate |
| Bisugo [Threadfin bream] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.31 | 1 month | -0.00 | 101 | moderate |
| Banana Latundan, ripe* Wholesale (PSA) | -0.31 | 5 months | -0.00 | 101 | moderate |
| Hasa-hasa [Indo-Pacific mackerel] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.31 | 9 months | -0.00 | 101 | moderate |
| Onion (Red) Retail (PSA) | +0.30 | 7 months | +0.00 | 102 | moderate |
| Copra Resecada Wholesale (PSA) | +0.30 | 7 months | +0.00 | 101 | moderate |
Correlation is measured on month-on-month percentage changes at the lag shown. Elasticity is the percentage move in the commodity per 1% move in the driver at that lag. Months is the number of overlapping monthly observations behind the estimate.
Last recomputed 2026-08-22.
How this is measured
- Both series are bucketed to monthly and converted to month-on-month percentage change, so a slow-drifting price level cannot manufacture a correlation.
- The commodity's monthly change is regressed on the driver's change at every lag from 0 to 12 months.
- The lag with the strongest correlation is kept; ties resolve toward the shorter lag.
- The link is labelled strong, moderate, weak or none from the correlation and its p-value together — strong requires a correlation of at least 0.5 at p < 0.01, moderate at least 0.3 at p < 0.05.
- Pairs with fewer than 24 overlapping monthly observations are excluded from every ranking on this site, however strong they score. With thousands of comparisons run each night, thin pairs clear a significance test on noise alone.
Other drivers
BSP policy rate
56 links
Headline inflation (PSA)
33 links
El Niño / La Niña (ONI)
31 links
Maize (World Bank)
23 links
Palm oil (World Bank)
19 links
USD/PHP (BSP)
18 links
Rice, Thai 5% (World Bank)
17 links
Crude oil, Brent (World Bank)
14 links
Wheat, US HRW (World Bank)
12 links
Urea fertilizer (World Bank)
11 links
Sugar, world (World Bank)
11 links
Soybean meal — feed (World Bank)
10 links
Related
These are statistical associations measured from historical co-movement, not proven causation, and they are not a forecast of any individual price. Figures are recomputed nightly from official published data and change as new releases land. Informational only — not financial advice.