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The US Fed funds rate and Philippine commodity prices
Effective US federal funds rate, published by the Federal Reserve. This page lists every Philippine commodity price whose monthly changes measurably track it, the delay between the two, and how much of the move carries through.
The US Fed funds rate is an index or rate rather than a price, and it can sit near or cross zero. Percentage changes in a series like that are unstable, so the figures below are best read as direction and timing rather than as a “10% move produces X” rule.
The strongest link currently measured is Coffee Arabica (roasted) (Wholesale (PSA)), which moves with the us fed funds rate with a correlation of +0.66 at a lag of 5 months, measured over 76 overlapping months.
Commodities that move with the us fed funds rate
17 links that clear both the significance and sample-size tests, strongest first.
| Commodity | Correlation | Lag | Elasticity | Months | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coffee Arabica (roasted) Wholesale (PSA) | +0.66 | 5 months | +0.11 | 76 | strong |
| Onion, yellow granex (Bermuda white) Farmgate (PSA) | -0.61 | 12 months | -1.69 | 27 | strong |
| Banana Others Farmgate (PSA) | +0.56 | 8 months | +8.55 | 29 | strong |
| Coffee Liberica (green coffee beans) Farmgate (PSA) | -0.44 | 9 months | -0.85 | 34 | moderate |
| Patola [Dishrag gourd], native Wholesale (PSA) | -0.43 | 7 months | -0.55 | 84 | moderate |
| Pineapple, Native Farmgate (PSA) | -0.40 | 8 months | -0.84 | 44 | moderate |
| Onion (White) Retail (PSA) | +0.40 | 3 months | +0.16 | 104 | moderate |
| Banana (Lakatan) Retail (PSA) | +0.38 | 10 months | +0.03 | 104 | moderate |
| Banana (Saba) Retail (PSA) | -0.36 | same month | -0.03 | 104 | moderate |
| Corngrits Yellow Wholesale (PSA) | -0.35 | 12 months | -0.04 | 103 | moderate |
| Copra Resecada Wholesale (PSA) | -0.34 | 2 months | -0.13 | 103 | moderate |
| Peanut without shell, dry Wholesale (PSA) | +0.34 | 6 months | +0.05 | 102 | moderate |
| Mongo [Mungbean], Yellow Wholesale (PSA) | +0.34 | 12 months | +0.10 | 75 | moderate |
| Peanut with shell, dry Wholesale (PSA) | +0.33 | 2 months | +0.26 | 101 | moderate |
| Tobacco Others Farmgate (PSA) | +0.31 | 6 months | +1.16 | 44 | moderate |
| Duck Eggs, Fresh Wholesale (PSA) | +0.31 | 8 months | +0.10 | 99 | moderate |
| Onion White (Yellow Granex) Wholesale (PSA) | +0.30 | 3 months | +0.25 | 100 | moderate |
Correlation is measured on month-on-month percentage changes at the lag shown. Elasticity is the percentage move in the commodity per 1% move in the driver at that lag. Months is the number of overlapping monthly observations behind the estimate.
Last recomputed 2026-10-08.
How this is measured
- Both series are bucketed to monthly and converted to month-on-month percentage change, so a slow-drifting price level cannot manufacture a correlation.
- The commodity's monthly change is regressed on the driver's change at every lag from 0 to 12 months.
- The lag with the strongest correlation is kept; ties resolve toward the shorter lag.
- The link is labelled strong, moderate, weak or none from the correlation and its p-value together — strong requires a correlation of at least 0.5 at p < 0.01, moderate at least 0.3 at p < 0.05.
- Pairs with fewer than 24 overlapping monthly observations are excluded from every ranking on this site, however strong they score. With thousands of comparisons run each night, thin pairs clear a significance test on noise alone.
Other drivers
Bank average lending rate (BSP)
58 links
BSP policy rate
48 links
US deep-sea freight PPI (BLS)
38 links
Headline inflation (PSA)
33 links
Global supply-chain pressure (GSCPI)
33 links
El Niño / La Niña (ONI)
31 links
NCR regional inflation, all items (PSA)
19 links
Palm oil (World Bank)
19 links
USD/PHP (BSP)
19 links
Maize (World Bank)
19 links
Crude oil, Brent (World Bank)
16 links
Rice, Thai 5% (World Bank)
14 links
Related
These are statistical associations measured from historical co-movement, not proven causation, and they are not a forecast of any individual price. Figures are recomputed nightly from official published data and change as new releases land. Informational only — not financial advice.