What moves Philippine commodity prices
Retail prices in the Philippines do not move on their own. They follow diesel, the peso, world grain and fertilizer markets, electricity, and the weather — but each with a different delay and a different sensitivity. Samirla measures those relationships from official published data rather than asserting them, and this page shows what the measurements currently say.
Strongest measured links
| Driver | Commodity | Correlation | Lag | Elasticity | Months | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Fed funds rate (FRED) | Coffee Arabica (roasted) Wholesale (PSA) | +0.66 | 5 months | +0.11 | 76 | strong |
| US Fed funds rate (FRED) | Onion, yellow granex (Bermuda white) Farmgate (PSA) | -0.61 | 12 months | -1.69 | 27 | strong |
| US deep-sea freight PPI (BLS) | Pineapple, Formosa Farmgate (PSA) | -0.59 | 3 months | -6.95 | 25 | strong |
| BSP policy rate | Copra Resecada Wholesale (PSA) | +0.58 | 9 months | +3.30 | 30 | strong |
| US deep-sea freight PPI (BLS) | Cucumber, baguio Wholesale (PSA) | -0.58 | same month | -4.74 | 31 | strong |
| Bank average lending rate (BSP) | Sweet Peas Native Wholesale (PSA) | -0.56 | 4 months | -4.75 | 30 | strong |
| US Fed funds rate (FRED) | Banana Others Farmgate (PSA) | +0.56 | 8 months | +8.55 | 29 | strong |
| Headline inflation (PSA) | Onion, yellow granex (Bermuda white) Farmgate (PSA) | -0.55 | 12 months | -125.00 | 25 | strong |
| Crude oil, Brent (World Bank) | Onion, yellow granex (Bermuda white) Farmgate (PSA) | +0.55 | 10 months | +4.42 | 27 | strong |
| US deep-sea freight PPI (BLS) | Garlic Taiwan (Imported) Wholesale (PSA) | +0.55 | 6 months | +0.50 | 25 | strong |
| Headline inflation (PSA) | Rice (Regular-milled) Retail (PSA) | +0.54 | same month | +2.33 | 104 | strong |
| BSP policy rate | Banana Saba, ripe* Wholesale (PSA) | -0.54 | 7 months | -1.04 | 32 | strong |
| BSP policy rate | Garlic Taiwan (Imported) Wholesale (PSA) | +0.54 | 2 months | +0.90 | 37 | strong |
| US deep-sea freight PPI (BLS) | Crab, Alimasag [Blue crab] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.54 | 2 months | -0.95 | 29 | strong |
| Meralco electricity rate | Pechay native Wholesale (PSA) | +0.54 | same month | +0.00 | 24 | strong |
| Global supply-chain pressure (GSCPI) | Onion, yellow granex (Bermuda white) Farmgate (PSA) | +0.54 | 5 months | +0.05 | 27 | strong |
| US deep-sea freight PPI (BLS) | Banana Saba, Green Wholesale (PSA) | +0.53 | 2 months | +0.98 | 29 | strong |
| US deep-sea freight PPI (BLS) | White Shrimp Wholesale (PSA) | -0.53 | 1 month | -1.02 | 30 | strong |
| BSP policy rate | Sweet Potato Wholesale (PSA) | -0.53 | 11 months | -2.11 | 28 | strong |
| BSP policy rate | Corngrits Yellow Wholesale (PSA) | -0.52 | 10 months | -0.59 | 29 | strong |
| Headline inflation (PSA) | Rice (Well-milled) Retail (PSA) | +0.52 | same month | +2.03 | 104 | strong |
| Meralco electricity rate | Chayote Wholesale (PSA) | +0.52 | same month | +0.00 | 24 | strong |
| Sugar, world (World Bank) | Banana Others Farmgate (PSA) | +0.52 | 7 months | +2.95 | 29 | strong |
| Rice, Thai 5% (World Bank) | Banana Others Farmgate (PSA) | +0.52 | 8 months | +2.71 | 29 | strong |
| Meralco electricity rate | Radish Wholesale (PSA) | +0.51 | same month | +0.00 | 24 | moderate |
By driver
How this is measured
- Both series are bucketed to monthly and converted to month-on-month percentage change, so a slow-drifting price level cannot manufacture a correlation.
- The commodity's monthly change is regressed on the driver's change at every lag from 0 to 12 months.
- The lag with the strongest correlation is kept; ties resolve toward the shorter lag.
- The link is labelled strong, moderate, weak or none from the correlation and its p-value together — strong requires a correlation of at least 0.5 at p < 0.01, moderate at least 0.3 at p < 0.05.
- Pairs with fewer than 24 overlapping monthly observations are excluded from every ranking on this site, however strong they score. With thousands of comparisons run each night, thin pairs clear a significance test on noise alone.
What the numbers mean
Correlation runs from -1 to +1 and describes how consistently the two series move together, once both are expressed as monthly percentage changes. A positive figure means they rise and fall together; a negative figure means they move in opposite directions.
Elasticity is the slope of that relationship: the percentage move in the commodity associated with a 1% move in the driver, at the reported lag. It is an average over the measured period, not a rule that holds in any given month.
Months is the count of overlapping monthly observations. It is the single most useful column for judging a result: a correlation drawn from 24 months carries far less weight than the same figure drawn from 120.
Frequently asked questions
What does price correlation measure?
It measures how closely a Philippine commodity's monthly price changes track an economy-wide input such as diesel, the peso exchange rate or a world commodity price, and how many months apart the two tend to move. The result is a correlation between -1 and +1 at a specific lag, together with the number of months of overlapping data behind it.
What is the lag?
The number of months between a move in the driver and the matching move in the commodity price. Samirla tests every lag from 0 to 12 months and reports the one with the strongest correlation, so a link that takes a quarter to reach the shelf is not missed by only checking the current month.
Does a strong correlation mean the driver causes the price change?
No. Every figure here is an association measured from historical co-movement. Two series can move together because one drives the other, because a third factor drives both, or by coincidence. Samirla labels strength from the correlation and its p-value, excludes pairs with thin history from any ranking, and reports the sample size next to every estimate so the evidence can be judged directly.
Where does the data come from?
Official published sources only: the Philippine Statistics Authority for retail, wholesale and farmgate prices and inflation, the Department of Energy for fuel and LPG, the Department of Agriculture for Metro Manila market prices, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas for the exchange rate and policy rate, the World Bank Pink Sheet for world commodity prices, NOAA for El Niño and La Niña, and the New York Fed for global supply-chain pressure.
Is this free to use?
These pages are free and need no account. Running your own pairs, choosing the lag, testing multi-driver scenarios and exporting the underlying series are part of the Samirla dashboard, which starts with a 14-day free trial.