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The BSP policy rate and Philippine commodity prices
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) rate. This page lists every Philippine commodity price whose monthly changes measurably track it, the delay between the two, and how much of the move carries through.
The BSP policy rate is an index or rate rather than a price, and it can sit near or cross zero. Percentage changes in a series like that are unstable, so the figures below are best read as direction and timing rather than as a “10% move produces X” rule.
The strongest link currently measured is Copra Resecada (Wholesale (PSA)), which moves with the bsp policy rate with a correlation of +0.64 at a lag of 9 months, measured over 28 overlapping months.
Commodities that move with the bsp policy rate
56 links that clear both the significance and sample-size tests, strongest first.
| Commodity | Correlation | Lag | Elasticity | Months | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copra Resecada Wholesale (PSA) | +0.64 | 9 months | +3.73 | 28 | strong |
| Banana Saba, ripe* Wholesale (PSA) | -0.56 | 7 months | -1.10 | 30 | strong |
| Corngrain White Wholesale (PSA) | -0.55 | 7 months | -2.32 | 31 | strong |
| Espada [Hairtail] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.55 | 7 months | -2.51 | 28 | strong |
| Bangus/Milkfish (Medium) Retail (PSA) | -0.53 | 1 month | -0.33 | 37 | strong |
| Mango Piko Farmgate (PSA) | +0.53 | 7 months | +13.83 | 26 | strong |
| Mongo [Mungbean], green Wholesale (PSA) | -0.52 | same month | -1.70 | 37 | strong |
| Corngrits Yellow Wholesale (PSA) | -0.52 | 10 months | -0.60 | 28 | strong |
| Cassava for industrial use, fresh tubers Farmgate (PSA) | -0.51 | 8 months | -18.91 | 26 | strong |
| Sweet Potato Wholesale (PSA) | -0.51 | 11 months | -2.26 | 26 | strong |
| Corngrits White Wholesale (PSA) | -0.49 | 11 months | -2.15 | 27 | moderate |
| Banana (Saba) Retail (PSA) | -0.49 | 4 months | -0.51 | 34 | moderate |
| Garlic Taiwan (Imported) Wholesale (PSA) | +0.49 | 2 months | +0.91 | 35 | moderate |
| Tilapia Wholesale (PSA) | +0.49 | 10 months | +1.20 | 27 | moderate |
| Chicken Egg (Medium) Retail (PSA) | +0.48 | 10 months | +0.30 | 28 | moderate |
| Cacao Farmgate (PSA) | +0.47 | 6 months | +4.69 | 28 | moderate |
| Coconut Mature Farmgate (PSA) | +0.46 | 8 months | +3.26 | 26 | moderate |
| Banana Lakatan Farmgate (PSA) | +0.45 | 8 months | +3.16 | 26 | moderate |
| Garlic, native Wholesale (PSA) | -0.45 | 9 months | -1.61 | 28 | moderate |
| Copra Corriente Wholesale (PSA) | +0.44 | 9 months | +3.14 | 28 | moderate |
| Pork (Kasim/Shoulder) Retail (PSA) | +0.44 | 12 months | +0.45 | 26 | moderate |
| Banana (Lakatan) Retail (PSA) | +0.44 | 10 months | +0.34 | 28 | moderate |
| Duck Eggs, Fresh Wholesale (PSA) | +0.43 | 8 months | +0.78 | 29 | moderate |
| Tilapia Retail (PSA) | -0.43 | 1 month | -0.19 | 37 | moderate |
| Ginger Retail (PSA) | +0.42 | 5 months | +1.65 | 33 | moderate |
| Dilis [Anchovies] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.42 | 2 months | -1.56 | 35 | moderate |
| Pork (Liempo/Belly) Retail (PSA) | +0.42 | 12 months | +0.42 | 26 | moderate |
| Tobacco Native Farmgate (PSA) | -0.42 | 10 months | -16.45 | 24 | moderate |
| Lapu-lapu [Grouper] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.41 | 9 months | +1.34 | 28 | moderate |
| Mandarin Szinkom Wholesale (PSA) | -0.41 | 10 months | -4.62 | 27 | moderate |
| Banana Lakatan, ripe* Wholesale (PSA) | +0.41 | 10 months | +1.27 | 27 | moderate |
| Mango Indian Farmgate (PSA) | -0.41 | 10 months | -12.11 | 24 | moderate |
| Bangus [Milkfish] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.41 | 10 months | +0.61 | 27 | moderate |
| Coffee Liberica (green coffee beans) Farmgate (PSA) | +0.41 | 5 months | +4.02 | 26 | moderate |
| Crab, Alimasag [Blue crab] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.41 | 5 months | +1.75 | 32 | moderate |
| Rubber (coagulated cup lump) Farmgate (PSA) | +0.40 | 5 months | +1.64 | 29 | moderate |
| Papaya Retail (PSA) | -0.40 | 12 months | -0.73 | 26 | moderate |
| Cassava for food, fresh tubers Farmgate (PSA) | +0.40 | 6 months | +3.75 | 28 | moderate |
| Coconut Young Farmgate (PSA) | +0.40 | 3 months | +2.33 | 31 | moderate |
| Shrimp, Sugpo [Tiger prawn] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.40 | 9 months | +2.13 | 28 | moderate |
| Malunggay Retail (PSA) | -0.40 | 3 months | -0.77 | 35 | moderate |
| Tambakol [Yellowfin tuna] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.39 | 10 months | +1.59 | 27 | moderate |
| Corn (Yellow Grain) Retail (PSA) | +0.39 | same month | +0.34 | 38 | moderate |
| Garlic (Imported) Retail (PSA) | +0.39 | 6 months | +0.35 | 32 | moderate |
| Ginger Native Wholesale (PSA) | +0.39 | 6 months | +3.24 | 31 | moderate |
| Mango Others Farmgate (PSA) | -0.39 | 2 months | -12.41 | 28 | moderate |
| Eggplant, long, purple Farmgate (PSA) | +0.38 | 4 months | +3.35 | 30 | moderate |
| Pineapple, Hawaiian Farmgate (PSA) | -0.38 | 2 months | -5.60 | 32 | moderate |
| Cassava Wholesale (PSA) | -0.38 | 9 months | -0.98 | 28 | moderate |
| Chicken egg* Wholesale (PSA) | +0.37 | 8 months | +1.11 | 29 | moderate |
| Ginger Hawaiian Wholesale (PSA) | +0.36 | same month | +1.94 | 37 | moderate |
| Papaya Hawaiian* Wholesale (PSA) | -0.36 | 5 months | -1.02 | 32 | moderate |
| Bisugo [Threadfin bream] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.36 | 4 months | -0.75 | 33 | moderate |
| Coffee Arabica (roasted) Wholesale (PSA) | -0.36 | 1 month | -0.29 | 36 | moderate |
| Mongo [Mungbean], Yellow Wholesale (PSA) | -0.33 | same month | -1.70 | 37 | moderate |
| Tamban [Indian sardines] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.33 | same month | -1.58 | 37 | moderate |
Correlation is measured on month-on-month percentage changes at the lag shown. Elasticity is the percentage move in the commodity per 1% move in the driver at that lag. Months is the number of overlapping monthly observations behind the estimate.
Last recomputed 2026-08-22.
How this is measured
- Both series are bucketed to monthly and converted to month-on-month percentage change, so a slow-drifting price level cannot manufacture a correlation.
- The commodity's monthly change is regressed on the driver's change at every lag from 0 to 12 months.
- The lag with the strongest correlation is kept; ties resolve toward the shorter lag.
- The link is labelled strong, moderate, weak or none from the correlation and its p-value together — strong requires a correlation of at least 0.5 at p < 0.01, moderate at least 0.3 at p < 0.05.
- Pairs with fewer than 24 overlapping monthly observations are excluded from every ranking on this site, however strong they score. With thousands of comparisons run each night, thin pairs clear a significance test on noise alone.
Other drivers
Global supply-chain pressure (GSCPI)
55 links
Headline inflation (PSA)
33 links
El Niño / La Niña (ONI)
31 links
Maize (World Bank)
23 links
Palm oil (World Bank)
19 links
USD/PHP (BSP)
18 links
Rice, Thai 5% (World Bank)
17 links
Crude oil, Brent (World Bank)
14 links
Wheat, US HRW (World Bank)
12 links
Urea fertilizer (World Bank)
11 links
Sugar, world (World Bank)
11 links
Soybean meal — feed (World Bank)
10 links
Related
These are statistical associations measured from historical co-movement, not proven causation, and they are not a forecast of any individual price. Figures are recomputed nightly from official published data and change as new releases land. Informational only — not financial advice.