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The bank average lending rate and Philippine commodity prices
BSP-published average interest rate on bank loans. This page lists every Philippine commodity price whose monthly changes measurably track it, the delay between the two, and how much of the move carries through.
The bank average lending rate is an index or rate rather than a price, and it can sit near or cross zero. Percentage changes in a series like that are unstable, so the figures below are best read as direction and timing rather than as a “10% move produces X” rule.
The strongest link currently measured is Sweet Peas Native (Wholesale (PSA)), which moves against the bank average lending rate with a correlation of -0.56 at a lag of 4 months, measured over 30 overlapping months.
Commodities that move with the bank average lending rate
58 links that clear both the significance and sample-size tests, strongest first.
| Commodity | Correlation | Lag | Elasticity | Months | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweet Peas Native Wholesale (PSA) | -0.56 | 4 months | -4.75 | 30 | strong |
| Tobacco Virginia Farmgate (PSA) | -0.46 | 7 months | -4.77 | 27 | moderate |
| Eggplant, native, long Farmgate (PSA) | +0.46 | same month | +1.41 | 29 | moderate |
| Pineapple, Native Farmgate (PSA) | -0.44 | 10 months | -3.03 | 30 | moderate |
| Stringbeans Wholesale (PSA) | -0.43 | 7 months | -1.76 | 59 | moderate |
| Eggplant Retail (PSA) | +0.42 | 5 months | +0.77 | 62 | moderate |
| Coffee Liberica (green coffee beans) Farmgate (PSA) | -0.42 | 4 months | -1.81 | 31 | moderate |
| Onion, red creole (Bermuda red) Farmgate (PSA) | -0.42 | 4 months | -3.44 | 41 | moderate |
| Radish Wholesale (PSA) | +0.41 | 5 months | +1.82 | 61 | moderate |
| Pepper hot, red labuyo [Chili pepper] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.41 | 7 months | -3.98 | 57 | moderate |
| Celery Wholesale (PSA) | -0.41 | 4 months | -2.48 | 62 | moderate |
| Tilapia Retail (PSA) | -0.41 | 11 months | -0.07 | 56 | moderate |
| Jackfruit green Wholesale (PSA) | -0.40 | 7 months | -2.40 | 58 | moderate |
| Cassava Wholesale (PSA) | -0.40 | 12 months | -0.59 | 54 | moderate |
| Mongo [Mungbean], green, shiny Farmgate (PSA) | +0.39 | 5 months | +1.18 | 59 | moderate |
| Onion White (Yellow Granex) Wholesale (PSA) | +0.38 | 1 month | +1.47 | 63 | moderate |
| Eggplant long, purple Wholesale (PSA) | -0.38 | 9 months | -1.37 | 57 | moderate |
| Corn (Yellow Grain) Retail (PSA) | +0.38 | 12 months | +0.11 | 55 | moderate |
| Ampalaya Retail (PSA) | +0.37 | 5 months | +0.52 | 62 | moderate |
| Sweet Potato (Camote) Retail (PSA) | -0.37 | 7 months | -0.18 | 60 | moderate |
| Sweet Peas Baguio Wholesale (PSA) | -0.37 | 4 months | -1.85 | 62 | moderate |
| Lettuce head Wholesale (PSA) | -0.37 | 4 months | -3.21 | 62 | moderate |
| Pepper finger, green Wholesale (PSA) | -0.36 | 6 months | -2.97 | 60 | moderate |
| Alumahan [Indian mackerel] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.36 | 11 months | -0.41 | 55 | moderate |
| Pechay native Wholesale (PSA) | +0.36 | 5 months | +1.21 | 61 | moderate |
| Gabi Cebu, for ginataan [Taro (cocoyam)] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.35 | 7 months | -0.53 | 59 | moderate |
| Broccoli Wholesale (PSA) | +0.35 | 5 months | +1.91 | 61 | moderate |
| Galunggong (Medium) Retail (PSA) | -0.35 | 11 months | -0.22 | 56 | moderate |
| Mango Indian Farmgate (PSA) | -0.35 | 5 months | -2.03 | 59 | moderate |
| Papaya Hawaiian* Wholesale (PSA) | -0.35 | 10 months | -0.67 | 56 | moderate |
| Chayote Wholesale (PSA) | +0.34 | 5 months | +1.55 | 61 | moderate |
| Gabi Tagalog, for sinigang [Tannia, Yautia (cocoyam)] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.34 | 7 months | -0.73 | 58 | moderate |
| Dalagang-Bukid, lapad [Caesio] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.34 | 6 months | -0.77 | 60 | moderate |
| Mango Piko Farmgate (PSA) | +0.34 | 7 months | +2.71 | 43 | moderate |
| Salay-salay [Crevalle] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.33 | 8 months | +0.51 | 58 | moderate |
| Bangus/Milkfish (Medium) Retail (PSA) | -0.33 | 11 months | -0.08 | 56 | moderate |
| Pechay Retail (PSA) | -0.33 | 4 months | -0.38 | 63 | moderate |
| Cucumber, baguio Wholesale (PSA) | +0.33 | 5 months | +1.91 | 61 | moderate |
| Ampalaya [Bitter gourd] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.33 | 9 months | -0.92 | 57 | moderate |
| Onion native (red shallot), multiplier Wholesale (PSA) | -0.33 | 7 months | -1.55 | 57 | moderate |
| Banana Saba, Green Wholesale (PSA) | +0.33 | 8 months | +0.51 | 58 | moderate |
| Okra Wholesale (PSA) | -0.32 | 7 months | -1.59 | 59 | moderate |
| Bangus [Milkfish] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.32 | 5 months | +0.15 | 61 | moderate |
| Banana Bungulan, ripe* Wholesale (PSA) | -0.32 | 7 months | -0.56 | 53 | moderate |
| Onion, red shallot (Sibuyas Tagalog) Farmgate (PSA) | -0.32 | 2 months | -2.60 | 61 | moderate |
| Espada [Hairtail] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.31 | same month | -0.37 | 56 | moderate |
| Pineapple, Formosa Farmgate (PSA) | -0.31 | 4 months | -1.90 | 59 | moderate |
| Bisugo [Threadfin bream] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.31 | 11 months | -0.35 | 55 | moderate |
| Dalagang-Bukid, bilog [Caesio] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.31 | 11 months | -0.67 | 55 | moderate |
| Banana Cavendish Farmgate (PSA) | +0.31 | 10 months | +2.01 | 54 | moderate |
| Pineapple, Hawaiian Farmgate (PSA) | +0.31 | 8 months | +1.14 | 56 | moderate |
| Habitchuelas [Snap beans] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.31 | 7 months | -1.50 | 59 | moderate |
| Hasa-hasa [Indo-Pacific mackerel] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.31 | same month | -0.47 | 65 | moderate |
| Eggplant, native, round Farmgate (PSA) | -0.31 | 10 months | -2.16 | 54 | moderate |
| Galunggong [Roundscad] Wholesale (PSA) | +0.31 | 2 months | +0.34 | 64 | moderate |
| White Shrimp Wholesale (PSA) | -0.30 | 1 month | -0.47 | 65 | moderate |
| Mango Carabao, ripe Wholesale (PSA) | -0.30 | 6 months | -1.24 | 60 | moderate |
| Duck Eggs, Fresh Wholesale (PSA) | -0.30 | 6 months | -0.19 | 60 | moderate |
Correlation is measured on month-on-month percentage changes at the lag shown. Elasticity is the percentage move in the commodity per 1% move in the driver at that lag. Months is the number of overlapping monthly observations behind the estimate.
Last recomputed 2026-10-08.
How this is measured
- Both series are bucketed to monthly and converted to month-on-month percentage change, so a slow-drifting price level cannot manufacture a correlation.
- The commodity's monthly change is regressed on the driver's change at every lag from 0 to 12 months.
- The lag with the strongest correlation is kept; ties resolve toward the shorter lag.
- The link is labelled strong, moderate, weak or none from the correlation and its p-value together — strong requires a correlation of at least 0.5 at p < 0.01, moderate at least 0.3 at p < 0.05.
- Pairs with fewer than 24 overlapping monthly observations are excluded from every ranking on this site, however strong they score. With thousands of comparisons run each night, thin pairs clear a significance test on noise alone.
Other drivers
BSP policy rate
48 links
US deep-sea freight PPI (BLS)
38 links
Headline inflation (PSA)
33 links
Global supply-chain pressure (GSCPI)
33 links
El Niño / La Niña (ONI)
31 links
NCR regional inflation, all items (PSA)
19 links
Palm oil (World Bank)
19 links
USD/PHP (BSP)
19 links
Maize (World Bank)
19 links
US Fed funds rate (FRED)
17 links
Crude oil, Brent (World Bank)
16 links
Rice, Thai 5% (World Bank)
14 links
Related
These are statistical associations measured from historical co-movement, not proven causation, and they are not a forecast of any individual price. Figures are recomputed nightly from official published data and change as new releases land. Informational only — not financial advice.