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World rice prices and Philippine commodity prices
World Bank Pink Sheet monthly Thai 5% broken rice price in US dollars. This page lists every Philippine commodity price whose monthly changes measurably track it, the delay between the two, and how much of the move carries through.
The strongest link currently measured is Banana Others (Farmgate (PSA)), which moves with world rice prices with a correlation of +0.52 at a lag of 8 months, measured over 26 overlapping months. At that lag, a 10% move in world rice prices has historically gone with a +27.9% move in the Banana Others price.
Commodities that move with world rice prices
17 links that clear both the significance and sample-size tests, strongest first.
| Commodity | Correlation | Lag | Elasticity | Months | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banana Others Farmgate (PSA) | +0.52 | 8 months | +2.79 | 26 | strong |
| Coffee Liberica (green coffee beans) Farmgate (PSA) | -0.43 | 6 months | -1.99 | 31 | moderate |
| Tobacco Others Farmgate (PSA) | -0.42 | 7 months | -3.53 | 41 | moderate |
| Bangus/Milkfish (Medium) Retail (PSA) | -0.41 | 6 months | -0.12 | 102 | moderate |
| Bangus [Milkfish] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.35 | 6 months | -0.19 | 101 | moderate |
| Pepper finger, green Wholesale (PSA) | +0.35 | 7 months | +3.31 | 101 | moderate |
| Chayote Wholesale (PSA) | +0.33 | same month | +1.37 | 101 | moderate |
| Sweet Peas Native Wholesale (PSA) | -0.33 | 11 months | -2.78 | 53 | moderate |
| Onion White (Yellow Granex) Wholesale (PSA) | -0.33 | 10 months | -1.33 | 98 | moderate |
| Banana (Lakatan) Retail (PSA) | +0.32 | same month | +0.12 | 102 | moderate |
| Rice (Regular-milled) Retail (PSA) | +0.32 | 4 months | +0.13 | 102 | moderate |
| Tobacco Virginia Farmgate (PSA) | -0.32 | 7 months | -2.63 | 46 | moderate |
| Ampalaya [Bitter gourd] Native Variety Wholesale (PSA) | +0.31 | 7 months | +1.71 | 100 | moderate |
| Eggplant long, purple Wholesale (PSA) | +0.31 | 7 months | +1.32 | 101 | moderate |
| Coconut Mature Farmgate (PSA) | +0.31 | 11 months | +0.36 | 98 | moderate |
| Mango Piko Farmgate (PSA) | -0.30 | 8 months | -2.41 | 72 | moderate |
| Tomato Retail (PSA) | +0.30 | 7 months | +1.00 | 102 | moderate |
Correlation is measured on month-on-month percentage changes at the lag shown. Elasticity is the percentage move in the commodity per 1% move in the driver at that lag. Months is the number of overlapping monthly observations behind the estimate.
Last recomputed 2026-08-22.
How this is measured
- Both series are bucketed to monthly and converted to month-on-month percentage change, so a slow-drifting price level cannot manufacture a correlation.
- The commodity's monthly change is regressed on the driver's change at every lag from 0 to 12 months.
- The lag with the strongest correlation is kept; ties resolve toward the shorter lag.
- The link is labelled strong, moderate, weak or none from the correlation and its p-value together — strong requires a correlation of at least 0.5 at p < 0.01, moderate at least 0.3 at p < 0.05.
- Pairs with fewer than 24 overlapping monthly observations are excluded from every ranking on this site, however strong they score. With thousands of comparisons run each night, thin pairs clear a significance test on noise alone.
Other drivers
BSP policy rate
56 links
Global supply-chain pressure (GSCPI)
55 links
Headline inflation (PSA)
33 links
El Niño / La Niña (ONI)
31 links
Maize (World Bank)
23 links
Palm oil (World Bank)
19 links
USD/PHP (BSP)
18 links
Crude oil, Brent (World Bank)
14 links
Wheat, US HRW (World Bank)
12 links
Urea fertilizer (World Bank)
11 links
Sugar, world (World Bank)
11 links
Soybean meal — feed (World Bank)
10 links
Related
These are statistical associations measured from historical co-movement, not proven causation, and they are not a forecast of any individual price. Figures are recomputed nightly from official published data and change as new releases land. Informational only — not financial advice.