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World rice prices and Philippine commodity prices
World Bank Pink Sheet monthly Thai 5% broken rice price in US dollars. This page lists every Philippine commodity price whose monthly changes measurably track it, the delay between the two, and how much of the move carries through.
The strongest link currently measured is Banana Others (Farmgate (PSA)), which moves with world rice prices with a correlation of +0.52 at a lag of 8 months, measured over 29 overlapping months. At that lag, a 10% move in world rice prices has historically gone with a +27.1% move in the Banana Others price.
Commodities that move with world rice prices
14 links that clear both the significance and sample-size tests, strongest first.
| Commodity | Correlation | Lag | Elasticity | Months | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banana Others Farmgate (PSA) | +0.52 | 8 months | +2.71 | 29 | strong |
| Tobacco Others Farmgate (PSA) | -0.43 | 7 months | -3.58 | 44 | moderate |
| Eggplant, native, long Farmgate (PSA) | -0.42 | 2 months | -1.28 | 29 | moderate |
| Bangus/Milkfish (Medium) Retail (PSA) | -0.41 | 6 months | -0.12 | 104 | moderate |
| Bangus [Milkfish] Wholesale (PSA) | -0.35 | 6 months | -0.19 | 103 | moderate |
| Chayote Wholesale (PSA) | +0.34 | same month | +1.43 | 103 | moderate |
| Sweet Peas Native Wholesale (PSA) | -0.34 | 11 months | -2.86 | 55 | moderate |
| Onion White (Yellow Granex) Wholesale (PSA) | -0.33 | 10 months | -1.33 | 100 | moderate |
| Banana (Lakatan) Retail (PSA) | +0.32 | same month | +0.12 | 104 | moderate |
| Rice (Regular-milled) Retail (PSA) | +0.32 | 4 months | +0.13 | 104 | moderate |
| Tobacco Virginia Farmgate (PSA) | -0.31 | 7 months | -2.59 | 49 | moderate |
| Tomato, ripe Wholesale (PSA) | +0.31 | 7 months | +1.93 | 103 | moderate |
| Pepper finger, green Wholesale (PSA) | +0.31 | 7 months | +2.81 | 103 | moderate |
| Mango Piko Farmgate (PSA) | -0.30 | 8 months | -2.41 | 75 | moderate |
Correlation is measured on month-on-month percentage changes at the lag shown. Elasticity is the percentage move in the commodity per 1% move in the driver at that lag. Months is the number of overlapping monthly observations behind the estimate.
Last recomputed 2026-10-07.
How this is measured
- Both series are bucketed to monthly and converted to month-on-month percentage change, so a slow-drifting price level cannot manufacture a correlation.
- The commodity's monthly change is regressed on the driver's change at every lag from 0 to 12 months.
- The lag with the strongest correlation is kept; ties resolve toward the shorter lag.
- The link is labelled strong, moderate, weak or none from the correlation and its p-value together — strong requires a correlation of at least 0.5 at p < 0.01, moderate at least 0.3 at p < 0.05.
- Pairs with fewer than 24 overlapping monthly observations are excluded from every ranking on this site, however strong they score. With thousands of comparisons run each night, thin pairs clear a significance test on noise alone.
Other drivers
Bank average lending rate (BSP)
58 links
BSP policy rate
48 links
US deep-sea freight PPI (BLS)
38 links
Headline inflation (PSA)
33 links
Global supply-chain pressure (GSCPI)
33 links
El Niño / La Niña (ONI)
31 links
NCR regional inflation, all items (PSA)
19 links
Palm oil (World Bank)
19 links
USD/PHP (BSP)
19 links
Maize (World Bank)
19 links
US Fed funds rate (FRED)
17 links
Crude oil, Brent (World Bank)
16 links
Related
These are statistical associations measured from historical co-movement, not proven causation, and they are not a forecast of any individual price. Figures are recomputed nightly from official published data and change as new releases land. Informational only — not financial advice.