Electricity rates and Philippine commodity prices

Meralco effective residential rate at the 200 kWh reference tier. This page lists every Philippine commodity price whose monthly changes measurably track it, the delay between the two, and how much of the move carries through.

The strongest link currently measured is Pechay native (Wholesale (PSA)), which moves with electricity rates with a correlation of +0.54 at a lag of same month, measured over 24 overlapping months. At that lag, a 10% move in electricity rates has historically gone with a +0.0% move in the Pechay native price.

How this is measured

1. Both series are bucketed to monthly and converted to month-on-month percentage change, so a slow-drifting price level cannot manufacture a correlation.
2. The commodity's monthly change is regressed on the driver's change at every lag from 0 to 12 months.
3. The lag with the strongest correlation is kept; ties resolve toward the shorter lag.
4. The link is labelled strong, moderate, weak or none from the correlation and its p-value together — strong requires a correlation of at least 0.5 at p < 0.01, moderate at least 0.3 at p < 0.05.
5. Pairs with fewer than 24 overlapping monthly observations are excluded from every ranking on this site, however strong they score. With thousands of comparisons run each night, thin pairs clear a significance test on noise alone.

Other drivers

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